Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
